“I don’t think anyone is correct or incorrect, including me,” Greenwald said of the current poll numbers. “To get to the heart of that, you’d have to do the kinds of research that haven't been done.”
The Obama campaign declined to comment on how it conducts its polling. The McCain campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Matthew Dowd, an ABC News commentator and former chief strategist for President Bush’s 2004 campaign, expects the Wilder Effect to be a “small factor” in November. “I wouldn’t want to be Barack Obama and up two points going into Election Day,” he said.
“My guess is that (the Obama campaign) understands that and they know it’s not enough to be ahead,” Dowd said. “They have to be ahead by a lot.”
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