For the middle 20 percent of families, that means college now costs 25 percent of income even after financial aid according to a recent report from the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education. That’s up from 18 percent of income nine years ago.

But for the lowest 20 percent of families, the real cost of college has risen from 39 percent of income to 55 percent.

Merit aid programs, while desirable, may be deemed a luxury in tough times.

In West Virginia, a report found efforts to control costs by toughening standards for the state’s PROMISE scholarship program have come at the expense of lower-income students, and asked the legislature to cap the awards at $4,500. A private college president there called the program a welfare program for better-off families.

Meanwhile, the stimulus plan raises the maximum Pell Grant, from $4,731 currently to $5,350 starting July 1.

“I hate that it comes because of a recession and this is the only way we can get the Pell increase, but I think it’s going to help a lot of students,” said Lloyd Dixon, interim financial aid director at Mississippi Valley State University, where about 95 percent of students receive Pell Grants among the highest rates in the country.

The stimulus also helps low-income families by making the tuition tax credit partly refundable to those who don’t earn enough to pay taxes. Currently, about 60 percent of the benefit goes to families earning more than $100,000.

Some experts, like Penn State’s Donald Heller, think merit aid programs are too popular for the balance to change much. But Doyle, the Vanderbilt professor, is cautiously optimistic.

“If we come out of this with a recognition of where the college access problems really are, that’s going to be a good foundation,” he said.