News

Analysis: Is Student-loan-driven Education Bubble Next?

by Justin Pope, AP Education Writer , November 7, 2011

Mark Kantrowitz
Mark Kantrowitz is the publisher of FinAid.org.

Those bills are paid with borrowed money. The volume of outstanding student loans is rising rapidly and now exceeds credit card debt, though recent reports of it crossing $1 trillion may be premature. Moody's Analytics puts the number at around $750 billion. But while credit card debt is declining, student loan debt keeps going up.

Just like housing, many student loans were made with little or no research into whether borrowers were fit. Federal Stafford loans are basically automatic for college students, and government backing for other types of loans gave other student lenders little reason to be picky.

Defaults on federal student loans jumped from 7 percent to 8.8 percent in the most recent fiscal year. That measures just recent borrowers who were already behind within two years of their first payments coming due.

Those numbers are all alarming. But putting them in context requires thinking separately about the ideas of a “student loan bubble” and an “education bubble.”

First, one thing that's important about the possible student loan bubble is that it poses much less of a threat than housing debt did to drag down the entire economy. Yes, many individual borrowers may find themselves in trouble. But total student loans probably amount to less than 10 percent of outstanding mortgages. Every single student loan could default and it still probably wouldn't match total mortgage defaults during the recent downturn. More important, unlike mortgages, Wall Street isn't knee-deep in securities composed of bundled student loans, as it was with mortgages. (It also helps that it's also harder to speculate in student loans; an investor can flip a house, but not a brain.)

The other big difference with student loans is the dominant role the federal government has assumed in the market in the last few years: it accounts for roughly 85 percent of student debt.

That matters for several reasons.

First, the government is answerable to voters and not shareholders, so it's more likely than private investors to take steps such as those announced by President Barack Obama to try to relieve student debt burdens.

1 | 2 | 3 | 4
Comments posted here may be reprinted in Diverse: Issues In Higher Education magazine, and may be edited for purposes of clarity and/or space.



blog comments powered by Disqus


FEATURED jobs
Assistant Director of Athletic Marketing
University of Northern Iowa

Develops plans for season ticket and group ticket sales; oversees the marketing plans for at least two sports as determined by the athletic marketing department; coordinates the Panther Kids Club program; designs promotional materials; and assists with press releases and game-day media coverage as needed.


Assistant Clinical Professor
Drexel University

This individual will work half-time in the Physician Assistant Program and half-time in a clinical practice associated with DrexelAcademic advising of students and membership on standing, ad hoc, search and special committee and task forces to university, college and program levels.


Business Manager (Budget & Fin Reporting Mgr)
University of Maryland, College Park

The Budget & Financial Reporting Manager is responsible for monitoring the budget activity for the several offices within the University Relations Division, including the Office of the Vice President, and will have oversight over expenditures made by these offices to ensure that expenditures...


Assistant Dean, Division of Teacher Education
Wayne State University

Responsible for the academic, administrative, budgetary and research leadership of the division; provide academic leadership in teacher preparation for the division, college and university.


Copyright 2012 © Diverse: Issues In Higher Education, a CMA publication.
Cox, Matthews, and Associates, Inc., 10520 Warwick Ave, Suite B-8, Fairfax, VA 22030