Beating Bush
A number of scholars studying the 2004 presidential race speculate that President Bush is highly unlikely to increase his margin of support among Blacks beyond more than a few points above the 9 percent of Black voters he captured in 2000.
"I think it's possible Bush may pick up a few points from the standpoint of some Black voters motivated by national security concerns. If there's stability overseas and the terrorism threat is reduced, there will be Black voters who will credit the president for that," Brown says.
However, the appointment of conservative judges and the opposition to the University of Michigan affirmative action plans have been among several policy stances that have not endeared Black voters to Bush, observers say.
In the view of most Blacks, "President Bush hasn't done a lot to appeal to African Americans," Winslow says.
Undoubtedly, how scholars evaluate the Black vote in the 2004 presidential race will mostly focus on the candidates who do appeal to African Americans.
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