As the curtain rises on the 1996 presidential campaign, a four-year old scenario appears to be repeating itself:

A Southern governor emerges from a pack of contenders to gain momentum in the early presidential primary election campaigns only to be confronted by a populist candidate who has captured a critical wing of the party.

But the key player in the 1996 presidential sweepstakes so far is not former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton (D), storming through a field of contenders, including the Rev. Jesse Jackson, en route to the Democratic party's presidential nomination.

This time, former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander (R) is being pitted against news commentator and conservative speechwriter Patrick J. Buchanan in the early stages of the quest for the Republican presidential nomination.

After two state caucuses and the New Hampshire presidential primary election, the two Republicans are the chief challengers to Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS).

Dole, who began the GOP race as the front-runner, has seen his candidacy's profile often overshadowed in the early going, much as the candidacy of former Sen. Paul Tsongas (D-MA) was overshadowed during the primary campaigns four years ago.

Alexander's momentum, as a former Education Secretary who advocates the demise of the department, is grabbing the attention of Black political scientists who predict dire straits for Blacks in higher education if the White House changes hands.

Implications of a Change

The difference between the 1992 and 1996 contests centers around the fact that the current drama is being played out under the Republican, not the Democratic, party banner.

According to Black political scholars, that difference underscores what's at stake for Blacks in higher education in the early stages of the drive to select the final presidential administration to be elected in this century.

"If there is a change of party in the White House, the implications of that change would be enormous," said Milton Morris, vice president for research at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington, DC, think tank.