Evidence arrives in tantalizing dribs and drabs:

* Almost 64 percent of juniors and seniors at Arizona State University have transfer hours from community colleges.

* Half of all the students receiving engineering degrees from the University of Maryland began at community colleges.

* About half of all juniors and seniors at the Newark campus of Rutgers University are transfer students most of them probably from community colleges.

* Enrollement of African American students in eight public Mississippi universities increased by 1.8 percent from 1996-97 to 1997-98 while the number of first-time African American freshmen dropped 8.3 percent during the same period. The difference? They are transferring from community colleges.

School-by-school, state-by-state, the evidence is sketchy but tends toward the same direction: more and more four-year college students are beginning their higher education careers at community colleges.

If this is true, the implications for four-year colleges and universities could be profound, especially in how they think about recruiting and retaining students. This is especially true for students of color, since about half of all college students of color attend community colleges.

The Lack of Documentation

The trouble is that no one appears to have any definitive, national figures.

"I don't know if we have the data on that," says Dr. David Pierce, executive director of the American Association of Community Colleges. "There are some states that collect data -- California, Washington, probably others."

California is the acknowledged leader in forging clear pathways between community colleges and four-year state institutions, particularly the California State University System. And although Washington and Arizona State Universities are close behind, the question of whether the trend has spread east is difficult to answer. That's because there are no national numbers on how many baccalaureates began their careers at community colleges.